Juwan Howard's Last Stand: Can Michigan Basketball Avoid the Abyss?

It feels like ages ago, but Juwan Howard’s Michigan Wolverines actually won the Big Ten regular season title in 2021, going 14-3 in conference play. They followed that up with an Elite Eight run. Fast forward to now, and the program is spiraling. The 2023-24 season was an absolute disaster, finishing 8-24 overall and dead last in the Big Ten at 3-17. That's the worst record since 1966-67, and that team played half as many games. You don’t just stumble into that kind of futility.

Thing is, the problems started showing cracks even before this past season. In 2022-23, they went 18-16, missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in seven years. Hunter Dickinson, who carried so much of the offensive load, transferred to Kansas after that season. That’s a huge talent drain, and frankly, the replacements haven't panned out. The roster construction has been baffling. You look at the 2024 recruiting class, and it's ranked 15th nationally by 247Sports, which sounds good until you realize how many key players they missed out on, or how much roster turnover happens yearly in the transfer portal.

**The Transfer Portal's Double-Edged Sword**

Michigan has been hit hard by the portal, and they haven't exactly been kings of bringing in difference-makers. After the 8-24 nightmare, four players entered the portal: Tarris Reed Jr., Doug McDaniel, Youssef Khayat, and Ian Burns. McDaniel was a significant loss, averaging 10.3 points and 3.6 assists as a sophomore. How do you recover from losing your starting point guard and second-leading scorer right when you need stability? You don't, not easily anyway.

And who have they brought in? Tre White from Louisville, a forward who put up 12.3 points and 5.9 rebounds last year for a bad Cardinals team. Vladislav Goldin, a 7-foot center from FAU, averaged 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds. Those are solid additions, sure, but they’re not program-changers on their own. Goldin is a good get, but can he really anchor a Big Ten defense the way Dickinson did, or even provide the same offensive punch? I’m skeptical. This roster still feels like a collection of parts, not a cohesive unit ready to compete with the likes of Purdue or even a resurgent Nebraska.

Here’s my hot take: Juwan Howard isn't going to make it through the 2024-25 season if Michigan misses the NCAA Tournament again. The goodwill from his playing days and that 2021 Big Ten title has evaporated. The fan base is restless, and athletic director Warde Manuel can only stand by for so long. The optics of an 8-24 season are just too damning.

Look, the coaching staff changes haven't exactly inspired confidence either. Saddi Washington and Phil Martelli, both long-time assistants, were let go. Howard brought in Will Tschetter's father, Brian Tschetter, as the director of basketball operations. Nepotism isn't always a bad thing, but it raises eyebrows when the program is in such disarray. The team needs a jolt, a new vision, not more of the same.

The schedule for next year won't be forgiving either. The Big Ten is always a grind, and with teams like Purdue returning Zach Edey and Illinois reloading, Michigan faces an uphill battle. They open with an exhibition against Grand Valley State on October 28th, but the real tests come quickly. Can Howard motivate a new group of transfers and remaining players to somehow gel and make a run? It’s a monumental task.

My bold prediction: Michigan finishes no higher than 10th in the Big Ten next season.