Mid-range shooters making a comeback — why DeMar DeRozan proved the analytics wrong
The Mid-Range Revolution: How DeMar DeRozan Rewrote the Efficiency Playbook
DeMar DeRozan isn't just making a comeback; he's orchestrating a full-blown rebellion against the NBA's analytics orthodoxy. For over a decade, the basketball intelligentsia preached a gospel of threes and layups, dismissing the mid-range jumper as a relic of a bygone era. The math seemed irrefutable: why settle for two points at 45% efficiency when a three-pointer at 35% yields superior expected value?
DeRozan, with his silky footwork, gravity-defying fadeaways, and ice-cold demeanor, looked the numbers dead in the eye and said, "Watch this." What followed was one of the most compelling counter-narratives in modern NBA history—a masterclass in how elite skill execution can transcend theoretical efficiency models.
Last season, at 32 years old, DeRozan delivered a career-defining campaign with the Chicago Bulls, averaging 27.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. This wasn't some fluke driven by an unsustainable three-point barrage or favorable officiating. He attempted a mere 0.7 threes per game, connecting on just 35.2% of them. His weapon of choice remained steadfastly old-school: the much-maligned mid-range jumper that analytics departments across the league had systematically eliminated from their offensive playbooks.
The Numbers That Broke the Model
DeRozan led the entire NBA in both mid-range attempts and makes, converting an astonishing 50.7% of his shots from 10-19 feet and 47.9% from 20-24 feet. To put these figures in perspective, the league average from mid-range hovers around 41-42%. DeRozan wasn't just good from these distances—he was historically elite, operating at a level that fundamentally challenges the expected value calculations that have dominated NBA strategy since the Daryl Morey era began.
Consider the mathematics: DeRozan's 50.7% shooting from 10-19 feet yields an expected value of 1.014 points per possession. Meanwhile, a league-average three-point shooter at 36% generates 1.08 points per possession—a marginal 0.066 point advantage. But this narrow gap disappears entirely when you factor in DeRozan's ability to get to the free-throw line (he averaged 6.3 attempts per game) and the secondary effects his mid-range mastery creates for teammates.
The Chicago Bulls posted an offensive rating of 114.2 with DeRozan on the floor compared to 107.8 with him on the bench—a staggering 6.4-point differential that speaks to his gravitational impact on opposing defenses. When your mid-range shooter converts at rates approaching 51%, the entire defensive calculus shifts.
The Tactical Genius Behind the Fadeaway
What separates DeRozan from the countless mid-range shooters who've been phased out isn't just his shooting percentage—it's his systematic approach to creating high-quality looks in spaces where defenses are programmed to concede ground. Modern NBA defenses are designed with two priorities: protect the rim and contest three-pointers. The mid-range has become a no-man's land, and DeRozan has colonized it.
His signature move—the baseline fadeaway from 15-18 feet—is virtually unguardable when executed properly. DeRozan uses a combination of footwork derived from Kobe Bryant's tutelage, body control that allows him to create separation against taller defenders, and touch that remains consistent regardless of contest level. According to Second Spectrum tracking data, DeRozan shot 48.3% on tightly contested mid-range attempts last season, a figure that would make most players' wide-open three-point percentage look pedestrian.
Bulls head coach Billy Donovan built an offensive system that weaponized DeRozan's mid-range prowess through strategic positioning. By placing DeRozan in the elbow and short corner areas—traditionally dead zones in modern spacing concepts—Chicago created a paradox for defenses. Help too aggressively on DeRozan's drives, and he pulls up for an automatic two. Lay back to prevent the jumper, and he's attacking downhill against a scrambling defense.
The Psychological Warfare Element
Beyond the raw numbers lies a dimension that spreadsheets struggle to capture: the psychological impact of an unstoppable mid-range scorer. When DeRozan gets cooking from 15 feet, defenses experience a form of cognitive dissonance. Their game plan says to concede these shots, but their eyes tell them they're watching target practice.
This forces defensive adjustments that ripple across the entire floor. Opponents begin stepping up to contest, which opens driving lanes. Help defenders start cheating toward DeRozan's spots, creating passing opportunities. The Bulls' three-point percentage actually improved by 3.2% in games where DeRozan attempted 10 or more mid-range shots, a correlation that suggests his gravity from the mid-range creates better perimeter looks for teammates like Zach LaVine and Coby White.
Former NBA coach and current analyst Jeff Van Gundy noted during a broadcast: "What DeRozan does is force defenses to defend the entire floor. When you can't give up anything, you're vulnerable to everything. That's the hidden value nobody's quantifying."
Historical Context: The Jordan Parallel
DeRozan's season carried echoes of basketball's greatest mid-range assassin. He became the first player since Michael Jordan in 1996 to record at least 35 points on 50% shooting in seven consecutive games—a streak that occurred during a stretch where the Bulls desperately needed wins to secure playoff positioning. The comparison isn't hyperbolic; it's statistical fact.
Like Jordan, DeRozan possesses the rare ability to impose his will on games through shot-making alone. In clutch situations (final five minutes, score within five points), DeRozan shot 49.1% from the field and 52.3% from mid-range, numbers that positioned him among the league's most reliable closers. The Bulls went 23-11 in games decided by five points or fewer, with DeRozan's mid-range mastery serving as their primary late-game weapon.
This clutch reliability stems from a fundamental truth about basketball: when the game slows down in crucial moments, the ability to create a quality shot against a set defense becomes paramount. Three-point attempts become more contested, driving lanes constrict, and the mid-range—that supposedly inefficient zone—becomes the most accessible high-percentage look available.
The League-Wide Implications
DeRozan's success hasn't occurred in a vacuum. Across the NBA, we're witnessing the early stages of a mid-range renaissance. Kevin Durant has always maintained his mid-range game despite the analytics revolution, shooting 51.2% from 10-24 feet this season. Kawhi Leonard, when healthy, remains one of the league's most efficient mid-range scorers. Even younger players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (47.8% from mid-range) and Devin Booker (46.3%) have built All-NBA cases partially on their ability to dominate from these "inefficient" areas.
The Phoenix Suns' championship run in 2024 featured Chris Paul and Devin Booker systematically attacking the mid-range against defenses designed to take it away, proving that elite execution trumps theoretical efficiency. The Dallas Mavericks' offense, built around Luka Dončić's step-back mid-range game, has consistently ranked in the top five in offensive efficiency despite attempting fewer threes than league average.
NBA teams are beginning to recognize a market inefficiency in reverse: while everyone zigs toward threes, there's value in zagging toward mid-range mastery. The Milwaukee Bucks reportedly spent significant time this offseason working with Giannis Antetokounmpo on his mid-range game, recognizing that playoff defenses will continue to build walls at the rim. The Los Angeles Lakers have encouraged Anthony Davis to embrace more mid-range attempts, understanding that his 48% conversion rate from these areas represents elite offense.
The Analytical Blind Spot
The analytics movement's dismissal of the mid-range was never entirely wrong—it was incomplete. The models correctly identified that for average NBA players, mid-range attempts represent suboptimal shot selection. Where the analysis failed was in accounting for skill distribution and individual mastery.
Not every player is DeMar DeRozan. Most NBA players shoot between 38-42% from mid-range, making these attempts genuinely inefficient compared to threes or rim attempts. But for the elite mid-range shooters—those converting at 48% or higher—the calculus changes entirely. A 48% mid-range shooter generates 0.96 points per possession, which, when combined with free-throw generation and secondary creation opportunities, can exceed the value of average three-point shooting.
The lesson isn't that analytics are wrong; it's that they must account for individual skill ceilings and defensive realities. A team with a DeRozan-caliber mid-range shooter should absolutely feature that weapon, just as a team with a Stephen Curry should maximize three-point attempts. Basketball strategy isn't one-size-fits-all, and DeRozan's season serves as a powerful reminder that diverse offensive approaches can coexist and thrive.
The Future of the Mid-Range Game
We're likely witnessing the beginning of a pendulum swing back toward valuing mid-range shooting, though not a complete reversal. The three-point revolution isn't ending—it's maturing. Teams are recognizing that the most dangerous offenses possess multiple dimensions, including players who can punish defenses from all three levels.
Expect to see NBA teams placing increased emphasis on mid-range shooting in player development programs. The G League Ignite has already incorporated more mid-range work into their curriculum for prospects. College programs are beginning to reintroduce mid-range shooting drills that had been eliminated in favor of three-point volume.
The Chicago Bulls' success with DeRozan—securing the sixth seed and pushing the eventual Eastern Conference champions to six games in the first round—provided a blueprint for competitive relevance without conforming to the modern NBA's stylistic orthodoxy. They didn't need to be the best three-point shooting team; they needed to be the best version of themselves, built around their star's unique skill set.
As defenses continue evolving to take away threes and rim attempts with increasing sophistication, the mid-range will represent an exploitable market inefficiency for players skilled enough to capitalize. DeRozan didn't just prove the analytics wrong—he proved they were asking the wrong question. The issue isn't whether mid-range shots are efficient in aggregate; it's whether your mid-range shooter is elite enough to make them efficient for your team.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did analytics experts originally dismiss the mid-range shot?
The analytics movement identified that mid-range shots offer lower expected value than three-pointers or shots at the rim. A mid-range shot at 45% efficiency yields 0.9 points per possession, while a three-pointer at just 35% yields 1.05 points per possession. For average NBA players, this math holds true, making mid-range attempts statistically suboptimal. However, this analysis didn't adequately account for elite individual skill levels, where players like DeRozan convert at rates (50%+) that fundamentally change the efficiency calculation. The dismissal was based on league-wide averages rather than recognizing that exceptional mid-range shooters represent a different category entirely.
How does DeMar DeRozan's mid-range shooting compare to historical greats?
DeRozan's 50.7% shooting from 10-19 feet places him in elite historical company. Michael Jordan shot approximately 48-51% from mid-range during his prime years, while Kobe Bryant hovered around 46-48%. Dirk Nowitzki, one of the greatest mid-range shooters ever, converted at roughly 49% from these distances during his peak. DeRozan's consistency at these rates while facing modern defenses specifically designed to contest mid-range attempts makes his achievement arguably more impressive. He's essentially matching the efficiency of all-time greats while operating in an era where defenses are more sophisticated and athletic than ever before.
Can other teams replicate the Bulls' success with mid-range-heavy offense?
Replicating the Bulls' approach requires having a truly elite mid-range shooter—a rare commodity in today's NBA. Only a handful of players (Durant, Leonard, Booker, DeRozan, Gilgeous-Alexander) consistently shoot above 48% from mid-range with high volume. Teams without such a player would be making a strategic mistake to emphasize mid-range attempts. However, teams that do possess elite mid-range shooters should absolutely build offensive systems that weaponize this skill, as the Bulls did with DeRozan. The key is matching strategy to personnel rather than following a one-size-fits-all analytical blueprint. The Suns' 2024 championship demonstrated that mid-range-heavy offenses can succeed at the highest level when executed by skilled players.
How do defenses adjust when facing an elite mid-range shooter like DeRozan?
Defenses face a difficult paradox when guarding elite mid-range shooters. The standard modern defensive scheme is designed to funnel opponents toward mid-range attempts while protecting the rim and three-point line. Against someone like DeRozan, this strategy backfires. Defenses must choose between stepping up to contest his mid-range shots (which opens driving lanes and passing opportunities) or maintaining their structural integrity (which gives DeRozan uncontested looks from his sweet spots). Most teams attempt to pressure DeRozan higher up the floor, forcing him to work harder for his spots, but this requires significant defensive attention that creates advantages elsewhere. Some teams have tried switching everything to avoid giving DeRozan favorable matchups, but his footwork and shot-creation ability allow him to score against virtually any defender in isolation.
Will the mid-range shot make a full comeback in the NBA?
We're unlikely to see a complete return to mid-range-heavy offenses league-wide, but we are witnessing a recalibration. The three-point revolution will continue, but teams are recognizing the value of offensive diversity and the importance of having players who can score from all three levels. Expect to see increased emphasis on developing mid-range skills in player development programs, particularly for wings and guards who can use these shots to complement their three-point and rim-attacking abilities. The future of NBA offense isn't choosing between threes and mid-range shots—it's having players skilled enough to exploit whatever the defense concedes. DeRozan's success has reminded teams that basketball remains a game of matchups and individual skill, not just mathematical optimization. The smartest organizations will build systems that maximize their personnel's strengths rather than forcing everyone into the same analytical framework.