Mid-range shooters making a comeback — why DeMar DeRozan proved the analytics wrong

Published 2026-03-17

The Mid-Range Messiah: DeRozan's Rebellion Against the Algorithm

DeMar DeRozan, a man often dismissed as an anachronism in the modern NBA, just laughed in the face of every analytics guru with a spreadsheet and a superiority complex. For years, we’ve been force-fed the dogma: layups, threes, and free throws. Anything in between? An inefficient relic, a basketball dinosaur lumbering towards extinction. DeRozan, bless his old-school heart, not only survived but thrived, proving the mid-range jumper is far from dead. Last season, DeRozan finished sixth in the league in scoring, averaging 27.9 points per game. This wasn't a fluke born of a hot streak; it was a masterclass in controlled, deliberate offense, a testament to skill over mathematical purity. While teams like the Rockets under Daryl Morey preached the gospel of the corner three, DeRozan was busy dissecting defenses from the elbow, the baseline, and everywhere in between.

The "Inefficient" Truth: DeRozan's Unstoppable Weapon

The analytics crowd will point to expected value, the higher points per possession from a three-pointer. And they’re not entirely wrong, in a vacuum. But basketball isn’t played in a vacuum. It’s played by humans, against humans, with varying skill sets and defensive schemes. What the numbers often miss is the unguardable nature of a perfectly executed mid-range pull-up. DeRozan shot a remarkable 50.4% from 10-16 feet last season, an area many consider a "bad shot." He hit 47.9% from 16 feet to the three-point line. These aren't just decent numbers; they're elite efficiency from spots that supposedly offer diminishing returns. When a player can consistently hit those shots, it bends defenses in ways that simply spacing out for threes cannot.

More Than Just Math: The Art of the Mid-Range

Think about it: a well-placed mid-range shot creates spacing, forces switches, and opens up driving lanes. It's not just about the two points; it's about the ripple effect it has on the entire offense. Defenders have to guard DeRozan tighter, preventing him from getting to his spots. This, in turn, creates opportunities for cutters like Zach LaVine or Nikola Vucevic. The game has become so obsessed with the three-point line that defenses have adjusted, often leaving the mid-range open as a calculated risk. DeRozan, with his pristine footwork, pump fakes, and patented fadeaway, exploits this vulnerability with surgical precision. He averaged 4.6 made mid-range jump shots per game last season, leading the league by a significant margin. The next closest was Kevin Durant, another mid-range maestro, at 3.3.

The Return of the Craftsman: A Bold Prediction

DeMar DeRozan didn't just have a great individual season; he validated a style of play that many had written off. He showed that skill, touch, and an understanding of spacing can still trump raw three-point volume. The league will continue to chase efficiency, but the success of DeRozan is a siren call to players and coaches alike: don't abandon the art of the mid-range. My bold prediction? We're going to see a slow but steady resurgence of the mid-range jumper. Not as the primary offensive weapon for most teams, but as a crucial counter, a change-up pitch that keeps defenses honest. Coaches will start to realize that having a DeRozan-esque player who can consistently hit from the elbow adds a dimension that pure three-point shooting cannot replicate. The analytics nerds had their fun, but the craftsmen are coming back.