Monday Night Hoops: Who to Ride and Who to Fade
Monday nights in the NBA can be tricky. You get a mix of contenders resting guys and lottery teams playing loose. For fantasy and DFS players, it's about sifting through the noise to find the actual value. André Snellings did the legwork, and while he’s usually on the money, I’ve got a couple of spots where I’m seeing things a little differently.
Let’s start with the Milwaukee Bucks at home against the Portland Trail Blazers. Snellings likes Giannis Antetokounmpo, and I mean, who doesn't? The guy put up 35 points, 10 boards, and 7 dimes against the Knicks on Saturday. He’s a walking triple-double threat. But here’s the thing: Portland is dead last in the league in opponent three-point percentage, giving up 39.5%. That makes me look at Damian Lillard. Dame’s been a bit up and down, but this is a revenge game narrative, even if he won't admit it. He dropped 30 points on 10-of-19 shooting with 8 assists against the Blazers back in February. I'm taking the over on his points and assists combined. He'll be feeling it against his old team, and the Blazers' perimeter defense is… optional.
**The Minnesota Mess in the Middle**
Then we've got the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Utah Jazz. Snellings is high on Rudy Gobert for his defensive stats. Gobert just had 16 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 blocks against the Bulls, which is fantastic. But the Jazz are sneaky good at limiting opposing centers’ offensive impact. Walker Kessler, for all his struggles, is a decent rim protector. He averages 2.4 blocks per game. More importantly, the Jazz play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league, which means more possessions, more shots, and more opportunities for everyone *else* on the court.
Instead of Gobert, I’m looking at Anthony Edwards. Edwards has been on an absolute tear, averaging 29.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.2 assists over his last 10 games. Against a fast-paced Jazz team that ranks 28th in opponent points in the paint, Ant-Man is going to feast. He dropped 31 points and 8 assists when these teams met in January. This isn't just a fantasy play; it's a statement game for Edwards to show he can dominate even with Karl-Anthony Towns back in the mix. The Jazz defense allows the third-most points per game at 120.4, making them a prime target.
One hot take: I think we see a surprising offensive explosion from Naz Reid against Utah. Towns is back, but Reid has been playing with a confidence we haven't seen. He put up 24 points and 8 rebounds in 28 minutes against the Clippers last week. If the game gets out of hand, or if Towns is on a minutes restriction, Reid could easily hit 20 points, especially given Utah's interior struggles beyond Kessler.
**Finding Value in Unexpected Places**
Don't sleep on the Philadelphia 76ers traveling to play the Miami Heat. Snellings is right to point out Tyrese Maxey's workload with Joel Embiid out. Maxey put up 30 points and 7 assists against the Hornets, and he's been consistently delivering. But the Heat are a gritty defensive team, especially at home, where they allow just 108.5 points per contest. Miami also plays at the slowest pace in the league. That means fewer possessions for Maxey to rack up those numbers.
My unexpected gem for Monday is Jaime Jaquez Jr. for the Heat. With Tyler Herro still out, Jaquez gets extended minutes and a bigger role. He scored 18 points on 7-of-12 shooting against the Wizards last Friday. The Sixers' defense is good, but they're vulnerable to aggressive wing play when Embiid isn't anchoring the middle. Jaquez is a scrappy player, and his minutes are secure. He’s going to outperform his usual projections.
Here's my bold prediction for the night: Anthony Edwards goes for 40 points against the Jazz, and the Timberwolves win by double-digits, making a strong case for him as a top-five MVP candidate if he keeps this up.