Let's start with **Scoot Henderson**. Remember all the noise around him coming into the league? The Blazers’ guard had a rough rookie year, averaging 14.0 points and 5.4 assists in 2023-24, shooting a brutal 38.5% from the field and 31.0% from three. His second year, 2024-25, showed some improvement, bumping his numbers to 17.2 points and 6.8 assists on 42.1% shooting. But there were still too many turnovers, too many wild shots. This past season, 2025-26, has been different. Henderson is up to 22.5 points and 8.1 assists, hitting 46.5% from the field and a surprising 37.8% from deep on nearly five attempts per game. The biggest change? His decision-making. He’s cutting down on the careless passes and actually playing with pace, not just speed. Portland, still finding its footing post-Lillard, looks genuinely competitive for a play-in spot, and Scoot's controlled aggression is the main reason why. He’s driving less into brick walls and more into actual scoring opportunities. That's a huge shift.
Then there's **Jonathan Kuminga**. It feels like we've been waiting for Kuminga to break out forever. He averaged 16.1 points and 4.8 rebounds in 2023-24, then 17.5 points and 5.5 boards in 2024-25. Solid, but not superstar stuff. This season, though, Kuminga is playing with a newfound confidence, especially with the Warriors' veteran core aging out. He’s putting up 21.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. The numbers don't fully capture it. He’s become a legitimate perimeter threat, shooting 36.2% from three on four attempts per game, up from 33.3% last year. More importantly, he’s not just relying on dunks and contested mid-range jumpers anymore. Kuminga is attacking closeouts, making reads, and finishing through contact. The Warriors need a new offensive anchor, and Kuminga is finally stepping into that role. Without Draymond Green’s constant guidance (or yelling), Kuminga has had to grow up fast, and it's paying off for a rebuilding Golden State squad trying to stay relevant.
My dark horse for this award is **Jalen Johnson** from the Atlanta Hawks. Johnson has always had the tools: athleticism, length, and flashes of playmaking. In 2023-24, he averaged 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. Last season, 2024-25, saw a slight dip to 15.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, largely due to some injury setbacks and inconsistent minutes. This year, with the Hawks finally committing to him as a primary option, he’s exploded. Johnson is now at 20.4 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. He’s shooting a career-high 39.5% from three on increased volume, and his finishing around the rim has become elite. He’s taking advantage of the Hawks’ up-tempo style, leading fast breaks and making smart passes. He's also become a much more disruptive defender, averaging 1.5 blocks and 1.2 steals. The Hawks, without Trae Young who was traded to the Spurs in the offseason, are leaning heavily on Johnson to create, and he’s delivered. He's the engine of their offense and defense now.
Next up, we have **Chet Holmgren**. This might feel like cheating since he missed his entire rookie year, but his growth from his "true" rookie season (2023-24) to now is undeniable. In 2023-24, Holmgren put up 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks. Last season, 2024-25, he improved to 18.2 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks. This year, 2025-26, he’s making a genuine case for All-NBA. Holmgren is averaging 21.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and a league-leading 3.1 blocks. He’s shooting 55% from the field and 39% from three, adding a legitimate stretch-five dimension to his game that wasn’t quite there before. His frame is still light, but he's bulked up just enough to hold his own against bigger centers without losing his incredible quickness. The Thunder are now a legitimate title contender, and Holmgren's two-way dominance, particularly his improved passing and ability to anchor their defense without fouling, is a huge reason. He’s taken a leap from promising young big to bona fide star.
Finally, let’s talk about **Jaden Ivey**. The Pistons guard has been a blur of athleticism since he arrived, but often lacked control. In 2023-24, he averaged 15.4 points and 4.8 assists, shooting 42.1% from the field. Last year, 2024-25, saw a bump to 17.0 points and 5.5 assists, but still too much inconsistency. This season, under a new coaching staff that’s given him the keys, Ivey has transformed. He's now putting up 20.1 points, 7.0 assists, and 4.2 rebounds. The biggest change is his efficiency: he’s shooting 47.8% from the field and a career-high 38.0% from three on six attempts per game. He’s not just driving to the rim blindly; he’s playing with pace, making reads, and finishing through contact. Detroit is still a work in progress, but Ivey’s improved playmaking and consistent outside shot have made them a much tougher out. He’s finally channeling that raw athleticism into consistent production, and frankly, he’s shown more consistent improvement than Cade Cunningham, which is a hot take I'm willing to stand by.
My bold prediction? Holmgren takes home the hardware, but Scoot Henderson finishes a very close second.
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