Forget the usual suspects. The NBA's Most Improved Player award isn't about j...
The Unlocked Potential: Second-Year Breakouts Redefining Development Curves
The NBA's Most Improved Player award has historically favored established veterans making dramatic statistical leaps—think Pascal Siakam's transformation from role player to All-Star, or Julius Randle's resurgence with the Knicks. But the 2025-26 season is challenging that narrative in fascinating ways. We're witnessing a cohort of young players, many still on their rookie contracts, making the kind of developmental strides that typically take four or five seasons to materialize. These aren't just incremental improvements; they're fundamental transformations in how these players impact winning basketball.
What makes this year's MIP race particularly compelling is the diversity of developmental arcs. We have second-year players finally getting meaningful minutes, third-year prospects unlocking new dimensions of their game, and young veterans stepping into expanded roles that reveal capabilities we only glimpsed before. The common thread? Organizations that invested in player development infrastructure and had the patience to let talent marinate rather than forcing premature results.
Anthony Black, Orlando Magic: The Point Guard Evolution
I've been banging the drum for Anthony Black since his first NBA minutes, and this season is vindicating that faith in spectacular fashion. His rookie campaign was, to put it charitably, underwhelming from a box score perspective: 4.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 16.9 minutes per game. That 27.6% three-point shooting was particularly concerning for a guard expected to facilitate Orlando's offense. His impact was almost exclusively defensive—valuable, certainly, but not what you expect from a lottery pick in year one.
But here's what the numbers didn't capture: Black's basketball IQ was already elite. His passing windows were NBA-ready, his defensive rotations were instinctive, and his feel for game flow was remarkably mature. The Magic's player development staff saw it too, which is why they remained committed even when the production lagged.
Fast forward to 2025-26, and Black is averaging 13.8 points, 6.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.7 steals across 32.5 minutes as Orlando's starting point guard. The departure of Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs' transition to more of a shooting guard role opened the door, but Black kicked it wide open with his performance. His three-point shooting has climbed to 36.8% on 3.9 attempts per game—not just respectable, but genuinely threatening enough that defenses can't go under screens anymore.
The free throw improvement tells an even more important story. Jumping from 62.3% to 78.5% isn't just about mechanics; it's about confidence and mental approach. Black is now attacking the rim with conviction, drawing 3.8 fouls per game compared to 1.1 as a rookie. His assist-to-turnover ratio has skyrocketed from 1.2 to 2.4, demonstrating dramatically improved decision-making and command of Orlando's offensive system.
What's particularly impressive is how Black has adapted his game to complement Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. He's not trying to be a primary scorer; instead, he's become the connective tissue that makes Orlando's offense flow. His pick-and-roll reads have become surgical—he's shooting 58.3% as the ball-handler in PnR situations, per Second Spectrum tracking data, ranking in the 78th percentile among point guards. When defenses load up on Banchero in the post or Wagner coming off screens, Black is making them pay with timely cuts and spot-up threes.
Defensively, Black has evolved from promising to genuinely impactful. At 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, he's switching across positions one through three with ease. His defensive estimated plus-minus of +2.8 ranks 12th among all point guards, and Orlando's defense is 4.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. The Magic are currently the third seed in the Eastern Conference, and Black's emergence as a legitimate starting point guard is a massive reason why they're not just a defensive team anymore—they're a balanced, dangerous playoff threat.
Ousmane Dieng, Oklahoma City Thunder: The Patience Play Pays Off
Dieng's story almost feels like it shouldn't qualify for Most Improved consideration because his playing time was so limited in his first two seasons. Averaging 4.4 points and 2.7 rebounds in 14.6 minutes during 2023-24, he was the quintessential "project" player—all physical tools, minimal production. At 6'10" with guard skills and a 7'0" wingspan, the potential was obvious. The execution? Not so much. That 30.0% three-point shooting was particularly problematic for a player whose theoretical value was as a floor-spacing wing.
But Sam Presti and the Thunder's development staff have built their reputation on exactly this kind of patient cultivation. They saw something in Dieng's fluidity, his passing instincts, and his defensive versatility that warranted continued investment even when the results weren't there.
This season, with the Thunder needing wing depth due to various rotation adjustments, Dieng has seized his opportunity with both hands. He's now playing 28.1 minutes per game and contributing 12.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists. But it's the efficiency that tells the real story: his three-point percentage has exploded to 39.2% on 5.3 attempts per game. That's not just improvement; that's a complete transformation of his offensive identity.
What makes Dieng's shooting surge sustainable is the mechanics refinement. Working with Thunder assistant Chip Engelland (yes, that Chip Engelland, who followed Mark Daigneault from San Antonio's coaching tree), Dieng rebuilt his shot from the ground up. His release is quicker, his base is more consistent, and his shot preparation off the catch has become nearly instantaneous. He's shooting 41.7% on catch-and-shoot threes, per NBA.com tracking, which ranks in the 82nd percentile among wings.
But Dieng isn't just a spot-up shooter anymore. His ability to attack closeouts has become a genuine weapon. He's averaging 1.21 points per possession on drives, per Synergy Sports, which puts him in the 71st percentile. His handle has tightened considerably, and he's making smart reads—either finishing at the rim (converting 64.2% within four feet), kicking to open shooters, or drawing fouls. That secondary playmaking ability, with 2.9 assists against just 1.3 turnovers, makes him far more than a 3-and-D specialist.
Defensively, Dieng has leveraged his physical tools into tangible impact. He's defending multiple positions in Oklahoma City's switch-heavy scheme, and his length allows him to contest shots without fouling (just 2.1 fouls per 36 minutes). The Thunder's defense is 2.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and he's become a trusted option in crunch time—no small feat on a championship-contending team.
His 24-point, 7-rebound performance against Memphis in November wasn't just a statistical outlier; it was a statement game that announced his arrival as a legitimate rotation player on a title contender. When you're earning minutes on a Thunder team this deep and this talented, you're doing something right.
Rising Stars, New Roles: Third-Year Leaps and Expanded Responsibilities
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: From Promising to Indispensable
Johnson was already trending upward last season with 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, but he was still viewed as a complementary piece rather than a foundational one. The concerns were legitimate: his three-point shooting hovered around 35%, his decision-making could be erratic, and his defensive consistency was questionable. He was good, sometimes very good, but not quite MIP-caliber.
This season, Johnson has obliterated those limitations. He's now averaging 20.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting 39.1% from three on 5.8 attempts per game. Those aren't just improved numbers; they represent a player who has become the Hawks' second-most important player after Trae Young, and arguably their most versatile weapon.
What's changed? Everything, really. Johnson's handle has become tight enough that he can initiate offense in transition and half-court sets. His passing vision, always present, is now being deployed with precision—he's averaging 5.3 assists against just 2.1 turnovers, a remarkable ratio for a forward handling the ball this much. He's become Atlanta's primary connector, the player who makes the extra pass, finds cutters, and keeps the ball moving.
His three-point shooting improvement is particularly crucial. Johnson has expanded his range to the corners and wings, and he's shooting 41.3% on above-the-break threes. That gravity opens up his driving lanes, and he's converting 67.8% at the rim—elite finishing for a forward. His mid-range game has also emerged as a reliable weapon, shooting 44.2% from 10-16 feet, giving him a complete offensive arsenal.
Defensively, Johnson has become Atlanta's most switchable defender. At 6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan and exceptional lateral quickness, he's guarding positions one through four effectively. The Hawks' defense, historically a weakness, is 3.7 points per 100 possessions better with Johnson on the floor. He's averaging 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks, and his defensive rebounding (7.2 per game) is critical for Atlanta's transition offense.
Johnson's usage rate has climbed to 24.8%, and he's handling that increased responsibility with aplomb. His true shooting percentage of 61.2% is outstanding for a player with his volume and shot diversity. He's become the kind of do-everything forward that every contender covets—a player who can guard multiple positions, facilitate offense, space the floor, and create his own shot when needed.
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz: The Defensive Anchor Adds Offense
Kessler entered this season as one of the league's premier rim protectors, having averaged 2.4 blocks per game in 2023-24. His defensive impact was never in question—he was already an elite shot-blocker and rebounder. But his offensive limitations were glaring: 8.1 points on almost exclusively dunks and putbacks, minimal post game, and hands that seemed more comfortable swatting shots than catching passes.
This season, Kessler has maintained his defensive dominance while adding legitimate offensive dimensions. He's averaging 14.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks in 30.2 minutes per game. More importantly, he's shooting 71.2% from the field—not just on dunks, but on a diverse array of shots including short hooks, face-up jumpers, and even the occasional mid-range attempt.
The transformation stems from Utah's investment in his skill development. Kessler spent the summer working with renowned big man coach Drew Hanlen, focusing on footwork, touch, and post positioning. The results are evident: he's now a legitimate pick-and-roll threat, averaging 1.31 points per possession as the roll man (89th percentile), and he's developed a reliable short-range jumper that keeps defenses honest.
His offensive rebounding has become particularly impactful—he's grabbing 4.1 offensive boards per game, creating second-chance opportunities and extending possessions. Kessler's screen-setting has also improved dramatically; he's setting harder, more effective screens that free up Utah's guards, and he's reading defenses better to slip to the rim or pop for short jumpers.
Defensively, Kessler remains elite. His 2.8 blocks per game rank third in the NBA, and his defensive field goal percentage at the rim (48.7% when he's the primary defender) is outstanding. Utah's defense is 5.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and he's become the anchor that allows Utah to play more aggressively on the perimeter.
What makes Kessler's improvement particularly impressive is that he's doing it on a Jazz team that's rebuilding. He's not benefiting from playing alongside multiple All-Stars; he's the focal point, and he's delivering. His player efficiency rating of 24.7 ranks 8th among all centers, and his win shares per 48 minutes (.198) suggests he's playing at an All-Star level.
Keyonte George, Utah Jazz: The Scoring Leap
George showed flashes as a rookie, averaging 13.0 points while shooting 35.2% from three, but he was inefficient (51.8% true shooting) and turnover-prone (2.8 per game). He had the confidence and shot-making ability, but lacked the consistency and decision-making to be a reliable lead guard.
This season, George has made the leap. He's averaging 21.4 points, 5.8 assists, and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 38.9% from three on 8.2 attempts per game. His true shooting percentage has jumped to 57.4%, a massive improvement that reflects better shot selection and improved finishing. He's getting to the free-throw line 5.1 times per game (up from 2.9 as a rookie) and converting at 84.3%.
George's pull-up three-point shooting has become particularly lethal—he's hitting 37.1% on pull-up threes, per NBA.com tracking, which ranks in the 76th percentile among guards. That ability to create his own shot off the dribble makes him nearly unguardable in pick-and-roll situations. He's also improved his finishing at the rim, converting 58.9% within four feet compared to 51.2% as a rookie.
His playmaking has matured significantly. George is averaging 5.8 assists against 2.3 turnovers, showing much better court vision and decision-making. He's learning when to attack and when to facilitate, and his chemistry with Kessler in pick-and-roll has become one of Utah's most reliable offensive actions.
Defensively, George remains a work in progress, but he's shown improvement. His defensive effort has increased, and he's using his 6'4" frame more effectively to fight through screens and contest shots. Utah's defense is still better with him off the floor, but the gap has narrowed considerably.
What's most encouraging about George's development is his confidence and poise. He's playing like a veteran, taking and making big shots in clutch situations. He's scored 30+ points seven times this season, including a 38-point explosion against the Lakers in January. For a 20-year-old on a rebuilding team, that kind of production and efficiency is remarkable.
The Broader Context: What This Means for Player Development
The emergence of these players reflects a broader shift in how NBA teams approach player development. Organizations are investing heavily in skill development infrastructure—hiring specialized coaches, utilizing advanced analytics to identify areas for improvement, and creating individualized development plans that address specific weaknesses.
The success stories we're seeing this season also highlight the importance of opportunity and organizational patience. Black, Dieng, Johnson, Kessler, and George all benefited from teams that believed in their potential and gave them meaningful minutes to develop. In previous eras, these players might have been buried on the bench or shuttled to the G League indefinitely. Instead, they were given chances to fail, learn, and ultimately succeed at the NBA level.
The statistical improvements we're seeing aren't just about individual talent; they're about players being put in positions to succeed. Black thrives in Orlando's defensive system that allows him to use his versatility. Dieng benefits from Oklahoma City's player development infrastructure and willingness to let young players make mistakes. Johnson has flourished with increased responsibility in Atlanta's offense. Kessler and George are getting the touches and minutes necessary to develop on a rebuilding Jazz team.
This year's Most Improved Player race will likely come down to narrative as much as statistics. Does the award go to a second-year player like Black or Dieng who's making a massive leap? Or does it go to a third-year player like Johnson who's become an All-Star caliber talent? What about Kessler, who's maintained elite defense while adding legitimate offense? Or George, who's become a 20+ point per game scorer at age 20?
Regardless of who ultimately wins the award, this cohort of young players is reshaping our understanding of developmental timelines and what's possible with the right combination of talent, opportunity, and organizational support. The future of the NBA is in excellent hands.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favorite to win the 2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player award?
As of late March 2026, Jalen Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks has emerged as the frontrunner. His leap from 16.0 to 20.8 points per game, combined with 10.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists, represents the kind of comprehensive improvement that typically wins the award. His improved three-point shooting (39.1%) and defensive versatility have made him Atlanta's second-most important player. However, Anthony Black's transformation from a struggling rookie to Orlando's starting point guard and Walker Kessler's addition of offensive skills to his elite defense make this one of the most competitive MIP races in recent memory.
How does Anthony Black's improvement compare to other second-year point guards historically?
Black's jump from 4.6 to 13.8 points per game represents a 200% increase, which is exceptional for a second-year player. More impressively, his assist-to-turnover ratio improvement from 1.2 to 2.4 demonstrates the kind of decision-making maturation that typically takes three or four seasons. His three-point shooting improvement from 27.6% to 36.8% is particularly significant—that 9.2 percentage point jump ranks among the largest year-over-year improvements for guards in the past decade. While he's not putting up the raw numbers of some historic second-year leaps, his efficiency gains and expanded role make his improvement comparable to players like Tyrese Maxey's breakout season.
Can a player on a rebuilding team like Utah win Most Improved Player?
Absolutely. While team success often influences award voting, the Most Improved Player award has historically been more focused on individual statistical improvement and expanded roles. Both Walker Kessler and Keyonte George are putting up impressive numbers on a Jazz team that's not contending for a playoff spot, but their individual development is undeniable. Previous MIP winners like CJ McCollum (2015-16 Trail Blazers) and Victor Oladipo (2017-18 Pacers before their playoff run) won the award on teams that weren't championship contenders. If anything, playing on a rebuilding team can help MIP cases because players get more opportunities and touches to showcase their improvement.
What makes Ousmane Dieng's shooting improvement sustainable rather than just a hot streak?
Several factors suggest Dieng's shooting improvement is legitimate and sustainable. First, he completely rebuilt his shooting mechanics with Thunder assistant Chip Engelland, addressing fundamental issues with his release and base. Second, his improvement is consistent across different shot types—he's shooting 41.7% on catch-and-shoot threes and maintaining efficiency on pull-ups. Third, his free throw percentage has also improved significantly, which typically correlates with sustainable shooting gains. Finally, he's maintained this efficiency over a large sample size (5.3 attempts per game across 60+ games), which suggests this isn't variance but genuine skill development. The Thunder's player development infrastructure has a proven track record of improving shooters, which adds confidence to Dieng's transformation.
How important is three-point shooting improvement for Most Improved Player candidates?
Three-point shooting improvement has become increasingly critical for MIP candidates in the modern NBA. Every player mentioned in this year's race—Black, Dieng, Johnson, and George—has made significant strides from beyond the arc. This reflects the league's evolution toward perimeter-oriented offense; players who can't space the floor face severe limitations regardless of their other skills. Historically, recent MIP winners like Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram, and Lauri Markkanen all showed substantial three-point shooting improvement during their breakout seasons. The ability to stretch defenses opens up driving lanes, improves offensive efficiency, and makes players more versatile within modern offensive systems. While it's not the only factor, three-point shooting improvement has become almost a prerequisite for serious MIP consideration.