Let's break down the early favorites for the 2025-26 scoring crown.
* **Current Projection:** 33.2 PPG
* **The Skinny:** When Doncic is on the floor, he’s a walking triple-double threat who can score from anywhere. He averaged 33.9 points in the 2023-24 season, leading the league. The Mavs' offense runs entirely through him, evidenced by his league-leading 35.8% usage rate last season. He attempted 23.4 shots per game, converting them into a respectable 58.7% true shooting percentage.
* **The Catch:** Games played. This is always the elephant in the room with Luka. He played 70 games in 2023-24, 66 in 2022-23, and 65 in 2021-22. The NBA’s new 65-game minimum for awards eligibility is a real factor here. If he dips below that, his scoring average, however gaudy, becomes irrelevant for the title. His career high in games played is 72, back in his rookie year. You wonder if the heavy usage eventually takes its toll.
* **Current Projection:** 31.4 PPG
* **The Skinny:** SGA is the epitome of consistency. He averaged 30.1 points in 2023-24, following up his 31.4 PPG outburst in 2022-23. His game is built on relentless attacks to the rim, drawing fouls, and converting at the line. He led the league with 9.2 free throw attempts per game last season, hitting them at 87.4%. His true shooting percentage of 62.4% last season was elite for a guard with such high volume. He's also been durable, playing 75 games last season.
* **The Edge:** Gilgeous-Alexander’s methodical pace means fewer rushed shots and more calculated attacks. The Thunder's roster is getting better, but he'll still be the primary offensive engine, especially in crunch time. His ability to get to the line keeps his scoring floor incredibly high, even on an off-shooting night.
* **Current Projection:** 30.5 PPG
* **The Skinny:** Giannis is a force of nature. He averaged 30.4 points in 2023-24, hitting 61.1% from the field. His true shooting percentage was a staggering 64.9%, absurd for a player taking 20 shots a game. He’s basically unguardable in transition and when he gets a head of steam towards the basket. His 32.4% usage rate is high, but not as absurd as Doncic's, given his efficiency.
* **The Question:** Can he elevate his scoring much higher without a more consistent jumper? Most of his points come in the paint or at the free-throw line (10.6 attempts per game last season). If defenses continue to pack the paint, how much more can he squeeze out? He also played 73 games last season, so availability isn't a huge concern with him, but he’s had his share of minor dings.
* **Current Projection:** 29.8 PPG
* **The Skinny:** Young is a volume scorer through and through. He averaged 25.7 points and 10.8 assists in 2023-24, though he only played 51 games due to injury. In 2021-22, he posted 28.4 PPG. His usage rate is consistently among the league leaders, often hovering around 32-33%. He can pull up from anywhere and has an uncanny ability to draw fouls.
* **The Obstacles:** Efficiency and games played. His true shooting percentage was 57.5% last season, which is solid but not elite for a primary scorer. The Hawks' situation also feels perpetually in flux. If they make a major roster change, how does that impact his shot volume? And can he stay on the court for 65+ games? That’s been a challenge.
* **Current Projection:** 28.6 PPG
* **The Skinny:** Ant-Man is ascending. He averaged 25.9 points in 2023-24, playing 79 games. That’s durability. His athleticism and improved shooting make him a nightmare matchup. His true shooting percentage of 58.7% is solid, and it's trending upward as he refines his game. He took 20.3 shots per game last season, a career high.
* **The Upside:** Edwards is still just 22 years old (he'll be 23 to start the 2025-26 season). He’s improving rapidly, adding more to his offensive repertoire each year. As the Timberwolves likely transition to being more *his* team, his usage (currently 29.2%) could climb, pushing his scoring average closer to 30. He feels like a strong bet to crack the 30-PPG mark in the next year or two.
The NBA's new rule requiring 65 games played for award eligibility is a major factor. It means players like Doncic, who consistently hover in the low 60s, need to prioritize health and availability more than ever. The old days of winning a scoring title in 50-something games are over. Allen Iverson, for example, won the 1998-99 scoring title playing only 48 games in a lockout-shortened season, averaging 26.8 points. That simply wouldn't fly today.
Real talk: A player could average 35 points over 60 games and get nothing. It forces a different kind of grind.
This isn't about who *can* score the most in a vacuum; it’s about who can do it consistently, efficiently, and *durably*.
Here’s why:
1. **Consistency:** He’s already shown he can hit 30+ PPG for multiple seasons. He’s not reliant on a hot shooting streak; his points come from getting to the rim and the foul line, which is a sustainable model.
2. **Durability:** He plays games. 75 last season, 68 the year before. He knows how to manage his body through a long season.
3. **Efficiency:** His true shooting percentage is elite for a high-volume guard. He doesn't waste possessions.
4. **Pace:** The Thunder play at a middle-of-the-pack pace, which helps SGA control the game and pick his spots.
Doncic might have a higher per-game average if he plays 75 games, but that's a big "if." Giannis is efficient, but his game is so physically demanding, and his scoring ceiling might be capped without a better jumper. Edwards is coming, but 30+ PPG is a leap. Young's health and efficiency are too volatile.
**Bold Prediction:** SGA not only wins the 2025-26 scoring title, but he does it with a career-high 32.5 PPG on over 63% true shooting.
Related Match Stats
💬 Comments