Northern Iowa's March Woes: A Pattern of Pain

The Northern Iowa Panthers have built a reputation over the years. They're that mid-major team that can knock off a blue blood in March. Think Ali Farokhmanesh against Kansas in 2010, sinking that deep three to seal a stunning upset. Or Paul Jesperson's half-court heave to beat Texas in 2016. Those moments are etched into college basketball lore. But here's the thing: for all the highlight-reel upsets, this program also owns a long, painful history of late-game collapses when it matters most.

Look, Ben Jacobson is a terrific coach. He's won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title five times and taken UNI to the NCAA Tournament four times since 2010. That's consistent success for a school with limited resources. But the ghosts of March seem to linger. Remember the 2016 NCAA Tournament? After Jesperson's heroics against Texas, UNI led Texas A&M by 12 points with just 44 seconds left in regulation. They lost in double overtime, giving up a 14-2 run to end regulation. It was an all-time choke job, a 92-88 final score that still makes Panther fans wince.

And it hasn't stopped there. Fast forward to the 2022 NCAA Tournament. UNI, a No. 13 seed, faced No. 4 seed Providence. They were in it, trailing by just three points with under a minute to play. Then Tyrese Martin hit a jumper, followed by a free throw, pushing the lead to six. UNI couldn't convert, and their tournament run ended with a 66-73 loss. It wasn't as dramatic as the A&M game, but it was another instance of the Panthers coming up short when the bright lights were on.

Here's my hot take: Northern Iowa's tendency to fold in critical NCAA Tournament moments is as much a part of their identity as their upset victories. It's a mental block, a collective program flinch that seems to manifest when they’re on the verge of something truly special. They play disciplined, fundamental basketball for 38 minutes, then it all unravels.

Consider the 2020 season. UNI was 25-5, ranked No. 10 in the AP poll, and had clinched the MVC regular season title. They were a lock for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament – probably a 4 or 5. Then COVID-19 shut everything down. That team, led by AJ Green, never got its chance. You wonder if that would have been the year they finally broke through, or if the curse would have struck again. We'll never know, and that's maybe the cruelest twist of all for that particular squad.

Last season, the Panthers finished 16-16 overall, 10-10 in the MVC. They lost to Bradley in the MVC quarterfinals 73-61. No March Madness, no chance for heroics or heartbreak. It was just another year. They brought back Bowen Born, who averaged 13.6 points per game, and Nate Heise, who put up 9.8 points and 4.7 rebounds. They're a solid, experienced core. But the ceiling feels lower now. They won't sneak up on anyone.

This year, the Panthers are a middle-of-the-pack MVC team. They're 12-11 overall as of early February, 6-6 in conference play. They've shown flashes, like beating Belmont 83-79 on January 3. But they also dropped games to Valparaiso and Illinois State. The magic feels a little less potent. They're not going to be a 4-seed this year. They're not even a lock for the NIT.

Prediction: Northern Iowa will not make the NCAA Tournament this year. They’ll finish with a winning conference record, but their tournament hopes will end in the MVC semifinals, another close game where they just can't quite get over the hump.