Thursday's NBA Slate: Why OKC's Young Guns Are a Lock
Eric Moody here, breaking down Thursday’s NBA action. We’ve got a short slate, just five games, but plenty of opportunities if you know where to look. Forget the big names for a second; sometimes the value hides in plain sight.
The headliner is probably the Celtics-Nuggets clash in Denver. Nikola Jokic is coming off a triple-double against the Raptors with 35 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists. He’s been a fantasy monster all season, averaging 26.0 points, 12.3 boards, and 9.2 dimes. Jayson Tatum, on the other side, just dropped 38 points on the Jazz. This game is going to be a shootout, but honestly, it’s a tough call for DFS. The pricing is sky-high, and you’re banking on both superstars hitting their ceiling.
My eyes are firmly fixed on the Oklahoma City Thunder playing the Dallas Mavericks. Luka Doncic is always a threat, averaging a ridiculous 34.6 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 9.9 assists. But the Thunder are a different beast at home, especially with their young talent. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been incredible, putting up 30.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game. He’s a consistent 50-point fantasy scorer, and against a Mavs team that can be leaky defensively, he’s a must-start.
**OKC's Under-the-Radar Weapons**
Here’s where it gets interesting for fantasy and DFS. Chet Holmgren is going to eat against the Mavericks' interior defense. Dallas ranks 20th in opponent rebounds per game, giving up 44.5 boards. Holmgren had 23 points and 9 rebounds in their last game against the Grizzlies on March 13th. He’s finding his rhythm, and I think he cracks 20 points and 10 rebounds tonight. His block numbers are also elite, averaging 2.4 per contest. That's bonus fantasy gold.
And don't sleep on Josh Giddey. He's been up and down, but against Dallas, in an uptempo game, he thrives. Giddey had 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists in their last outing against the Mavs back in early December. The usage might not be huge with SGA dominating, but his ability to fill the stat sheet across multiple categories makes him a sneaky play. He’s cheaper than you’d expect for his upside on a given night.
Thing is, everyone looks at Luka and SGA and stops there. But the supporting cast for OKC, particularly Holmgren, offers incredible value. Dallas has struggled with athletic bigs all season. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II have their moments, but they aren't stopping Holmgren from getting to the rim or impacting shots.
Another game worth a look is the Rockets hosting the Wizards. Houston has been playing better lately, winning eight of their last ten. Jalen Green has really picked it up, averaging 26.8 points in March. The Wizards are, well, the Wizards. They give up the most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. Green is poised for another big night. He’s a high-usage player, and the volume will be there.
My hot take for tonight? Chet Holmgren outscores Luka Doncic. You heard it here first.
**My Favorite Picks for Thursday**
For DFS, my top play is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. High floor, sky-high ceiling. Pair him with Chet Holmgren for an OKC stack that could pay off big. For a cheaper option, Jalen Green is primed to explode against the Wizards. Don't overthink it.
Bold prediction: The Thunder beat the Mavericks by double digits, and Holmgren posts a career-high in points.